It manages to shoehorn in a load of other Conservative themes, but it’s great to see this on Conservative Home. It packs a lot of arguments into one article.
Maybe the tide really is turning…
Showing posts tagged tories
UK politics in chaos
The independent Boundary Commission for England has made its proposals for boundaries that fit the reduction in number of MPs and lower tolerances for the number of people per constituency. And it’s got MPs worried. “Musical chairs with machetes” is the best description I’ve heard!
Many have said that the changes are more radical than expected, and the problem is that the Commons needs to vote through these yet-to-be-finalised boundaries - or not - in 2013. This is a consultation for now, and in some areas all three parties might submit their own proposals, but in most cases I doubt there’s much leeway. Here are some unsettling points:
- Which party comes out best? From what I’ve seen, the news for the Lib Dems isn’t terrible (or is it?, but I think the analysis is too simplistic so far) but more on that below. More marginals, particularly Labour/Conservative, is a likely outcome. The new rules are designed to benefit the Tories but no one’s saying at the moment that the proposed seats would give them a scandalously large boost. Certainly many Tory MPs will want to vote down the changes. But if Conservative HQ see lower-than-expected gains, might they conclude that bringing their MPs into line for the vote isn’t worth the effort?
- And if the Tory party isn’t so keen, then the importance of the Lib Dem’s [thus-far] largely-unspoken threat of voting against the change, and therefore part of their coalition bargaining power, is reduced.
- The BBC picks out these senior figures as being particularly under threat: George Osborne, Ken Clarke, Hugh Robertson (Tories); Ed Balls, Hilary Benn, Tessa Jowell, Chuka Umunna (Labour); Chris Huhne, Vince Cable, Tim Farron (Lib Dems); Caroline Lucas (Green Party).
- But the Lib Dems really don’t have (m)any safe seats. Unlike George Osborne, their leadership can’t just be moved to safer pastures. I’m sure they can win most of them, but it’ll take a lot of work. Will the Lib Dem party have to choose its leader for the next election (Nick Clegg? Tim Farron?) without being sure if they’re going to win their seat? Might that skew the party election?
- Party President Tim Farron’s large majority would merge with a Tory seat with its own large majority. Cumbria’s seat reduction will hit one of the coalition partners, but my money’s on Farron winning. The party might be more worried about Chris Huhne’s seat, into which a lot of work has been put, I believe.
- Will some Labour MPs back the changes for their own good?
- Political expert Mike Smithson says “PaddyPower is laying bets at 6/4 that the changes won’t happen. I think it’s only a 50-50 chance.”
- Under such conditions, are local parties to start putting in the legwork in new areas before 2013 without knowing if the changes will happen or not?
- The boundary review (Tory demand) was legislatively packaged together with the AV referendum (LD demand). Would there be something poetic or just about neither the Tories nor Lib Dems getting what they wanted? It might be better than the Tories winning on both counts!
- These reviews are meant to take place every 5 years. Will future changes be anywhere near as disruptive?
- Does the reduction in the number of MPs impact other political decisions? Will in-fighting affect Parliament’s work? And do elected Police Commissioners and an unelected House of Lords provide comfy places to send pacified MPs?
Tories cold on gay kissing (Lib Dems hot)
(Re. broadcasting on TV before 9pm.)
Edit: I wonder if those surveyed would have preferred married (or, for now, civil partnered) gay/lesbian kisses?
A fascinating poll via Political Betting. Just 12% of Labour voters and 10% of Tory voters reckon they’ll be on the losing side at the next election.
This may be perfectly usual, but I think the current economic circumstances play a large role. Labour voters, I reckon, have a very different expectation to Tory ones of what’s going to happen over the next few years. They believe the economy is doomed, and that the cuts will make so many unemployed, and hurt everyone but the rich so hard, that the Tories have no chance of winning again.
Although there’s some truth in those things, and Labour are ahead in the polls, I think they’re deluded to think they’re going to win even a small majority. Reasons include: economic recovery, a tendency to give a government more than one term, the leaders themselves, the redrawn boundaries (assuming they pass…), the failure of AV in the referendum, Labour’s economic reputation vs George balancing the budget, the promise of tax cuts, the rise of the SNP in Scotland, the spending advantage the Tories always have…
I’d like another ‘hung parliament’ of course, but although that’s achievable, and failing complete economic collapse, I think we’re on track for a Tory majority (eurgh!!!) on 7th May 2015.
Tory MP Louise Mensch 'probably took drugs in club'
This seems pretty dodgy on the part of the journalists.
The MP for Corby said she had been contacted by journalists who said they knew she had taken drugs at a nightclub with a famous musician.
The journalists claimed to have photographs of the night in question.
Don’t tell me they contacted her just to ask for a comment! What’s worse is that she’s on the Commons Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee which plays a large role in investigating the phone-hacking scandal.
Mrs Mensch said it was “highly probable” the incident had taken place, but MPs were “entitled to a life before politics, including making mistakes”.
Good for her for not giving into any kind of blackmail!
- - -
More at The Telegraph:
In a statement, Mrs Mensch noted she received the email three days after she put questions to James and Rupert Murdoch at the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. […]
Her decision to release both the email and her response received wide praise from parliamentary colleagues, with Tom Watson MP describing it as “quality”.
The email she received is available here (and on the face of it they do just ask for a comment!).
The popular vote in the UK.
- Blue: Tory (1832), Conservative (from 1835), Liberal Conservative (1847-59), Liberal Unionist (1886-1910), National parties (1931-45)
- Grey: other parties and independents
- Orange: Whig (to mid-19th century), Liberal (mid-19th century to 1979), National Liberal (1922), Independent Liberal (1931), SDP-Liberal Alliance (1983-87) and Liberal Democrat (from 1992)
- Red: Labour
